Articles
This section brings together our long-form views: market narrative, cycle analysis, sentiment shifts, and the broader forces that shape risk. Each article is written to clarify how we see the landscape — not to predict, and not as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
The Bull Trend Holds. Metals Are Getting Interesting.
The correction in metals is creating a more attractive opportunity, while equities remain constructive as November begins.
October has sharpened the difference between equities and metals. The S&P 500 finished the month down less than 1% and remains relatively close to its highs. Metals, meanwhile, have experienced a much more substantial correction. That does not change my broader view of the bull market, but it does change where I see the better opportunity developing. I remain constructive on equities, and I am more bullish on metals than I was a month ago.
The Bull Market Is Alive, But Not Easy
Metals are likely getting closer to a tradable low, while equities remain bullish above key structure but continue to chop.
The larger bull market still looks alive to me. It just does not look easy. Metals are correcting in a way that still looks constructive. Equities are not broken, but they are not giving clean signals either. September did not change the larger thesis, but it did confirm one thing: this is not the part of the cycle where every move should be chased. The opportunity is still there. It just requires more patience.
August Changed the Setup
Metals look better, equities have repaired the tape, and the next pullback will show whether the recovery has staying power.
July flashed yellow for equities. August did not confirm the warning. That is the simplest way I see the market today.
Sideways Is Not a Decision
Metals are still trying to bottom, while equities are testing whether July was only a pause or the first sign of a less dependable tape.
July did not settle much. The S&P 500 finished the month almost exactly where it started — slightly negative, but not meaningfully lower. Gold, silver, and miners also remain in roughly the same posture they were in when I wrote the last metals update. Nothing has broken decisively. Nothing has resolved cleanly. But unresolved does not mean unimportant.
Gold and Silver: The Next Low May Matter
The metals are no longer stretched. The next sell-off may create a tradable bottom, even if it is not the final low.
The last time I wrote about gold and silver, my view was simple: the bull market was late, but not necessarily over. The move had become stretched, especially in silver, and a correction was needed before the next real opportunity could develop.
Feels Like 1999. But Is It?
The tape still belongs to the bulls. The margin for error is getting thinner.
The market feels speculative again — not because it has to fall tomorrow, and not because investors should suddenly run for the exits. That is not the point. The point is that risk is rising at the same time confidence is rising, and that combination usually deserves more respect than it gets.
This Bull Market in Gold and Silver Is in Its Last Act
We’ve been climbing for years. The question isn’t whether there’s a bull market – it’s where in that bull we are.
The mood around gold is confident. We’ve gone from debating whether it could reclaim the old 2011 highs to assuming new highs are a matter of time. Every macro story – debt, deficits, geopolitics, real rates – eventually circles back to the same conclusion: gold belongs in the portfolio.
This Looks Like the Last Chapter of the Cycle
The mood is buoyant, the math is unforgiving, and late-cycle markets can climb until they can’t.
Mood and Market
The market does not just discount cash flows; it reflects mood. You can see it right now in earnings calls that lean into ‘AI tailwinds’, in strategy decks that assume capacity will find demand, and in feeds that treat every pullback as a buying opportunity. The data over the last six months has not been uniformly strong, yet price keeps hovering near highs. That is what social mood usually looks like late in a cycle: it downplays negative surprises and highlights whatever fits the bullish story.