The Bull Market Is Alive, But Not Easy

Metals are likely getting closer to a tradable low, while equities remain bullish above key structure but continue to chop.

The larger bull market still looks alive to me. It just does not look easy. Metals are correcting in away that still looks constructive. Equities are not broken, but they are not giving clean signals either. September did not change the larger thesis, but it did confirm one thing: this is not the part of the cycle where every move should be chased. The opportunity is still there. It just requires more patience.

Metals Are Getting Closer

The metals thesis has not changed. If anything, price action is starting to align more closely with what we wrote last month. Gold, silver, and miners have been correcting, but the correction still looks more like a setup than a failure. That distinction matters. In a failed cycle, rallies get weaker, miners stop responding, and the structure breaks down. That is not my base case today. My base case is still that the metals complex is working through the final part of a correction before a much larger rally resumes.

That does not mean the final low is already in. Gold may be close to completing its correction, or it may still need another lower low first. Silver is in a similar position. It could stop near current levels, but if it loses the high-50s area on the December contract, a move into the low-50s would not surprise me. GDX can also retest lower levels. A move into the low-80s or even high-70s is still possible before the structure is complete. That may sound bearish, but it is not how I see it.

The pullback is the opportunity. The only question is whether that opportunity begins from nearby levels or after one more shakeout.

The exact level is less important than the structure. Gold may be consolidating enough around current levels, or it may still need a deeper washout. Even if gold moves into the high-3,000s, I would not automatically treat that as a failed cycle. The same logic applies to silver and miners. A deeper pullback would hurt in the short term, but it may also clear the path for a cleaner rally once the bottoming process is complete. So the message is simple: metals are getting closer, but probably not clean yet. Some investors may start layering exposure before the low is obvious. Others may wait for confirmation. That is a tactical choice. The bigger point is that any next weakness in metals should be watched as a potential opportunity — either to complete the bottoming process or to set up the next major rally into next year.

Equities Are Chopping, Not Broken

Equities are still in a bull market, but they are not giving clean signals. July flashed yellow. August repaired the tape. September made the picture messy again. The S&P 500 had a decent first half of the month, but the second half weakened and the month closed negative. That does not end the bull market. It tells us the market is still working through a range, not trending cleanly.

The area around 7,250 is the key zone I am watching on the downside. As long as the S&P 500 stays above that area, I still think the bull market remains intact. Below that area, I would become more cautious. Below 7,000, the structure would need a much bigger rethink. On the upside, a move back above 7,900 would make the picture much cleaner, especially if the index then starts pressing toward 8,000. That would suggest the market absorbed September’s weakness and is trying to extend the bull trend again.

October is where this becomes interesting. Historically, October in midterm years has often been a favorable recovery window, but seasonality is not a rule. 2018 is the reminder. October can start normally and still break down if rates, valuation concerns, earnings reactions, or breadth move against the market. So the question is not whether October is supposed to be positive. The question is whether the market holds structure. Above the area around 7,250, the structure still favors the bulls. Above 7,900, the upside case becomes cleaner. Below 7,000, I would stop treating this as ordinary chop.

What I Am Watching

For metals, I am watching gold, silver, and miners such as GDX. If they make another lower low but quickly stabilize, that would be constructive. If miners stop responding completely and the metals lose structure, I would become more cautious.

For equities, I am watching whether the S&P 500 can stay above the broader support zone and eventually reclaim the upper part of the range. A normal pullback is fine. A controlled dip that holds structure would keep the bull case intact. A break below the 7,250 area would make me more cautious, and a break below 7,000 would force a larger rethink.

Bottom Line

Equities remain in a bull structure, but the easy signal is missing. I still think the larger bull market can continue, but this is not the part of the cycle where every dip should be chased before the market gives clearer evidence.

Metals may be setting up as the relatively better opportunity. Another lower low in gold, silver, or GDX would not surprise me, but that weakness still looks more like a potential setup than a failed cycle. October may repair September’s equity weakness, but for now the cleaner opportunity still looks more likely to come from metals.

Opinion for educational purposes only; not investment advice.