The Bull Trend Holds. Metals Are Getting Interesting.

The correction in metals is creating a more attractive opportunity, while equities remain constructive as November begins.

October has sharpened the difference between equities and metals. The S&P 500 finished the month down less than 1% and remains relatively close to its highs. Metals, meanwhile, have experienced a much more substantial correction. That does not change my broader view of the bull market, but it does change where I see the better opportunity developing. I remain constructive on equities, and I am more bullish on metals than I was a month ago.

Metals: The Correction We Were Waiting For

In the previous article, I was allowing for another low in metals. That pullback is no longer something we are anticipating. It is already here. Does that mean the final low is in? Not necessarily. Gold could still move toward the mid-$3,000s, silver could correct further, and miners may have another shakeout ahead. GDX could even bounce toward the mid-$80s before making another low in the $70s. These possibilities remain open, but they are not my central expectation for the larger cycle. I still believe the metals complex is working through a correction, and I expect another meaningful rally to begin once it ends — possibly soon — and continue into next year. In my framework, the correction has made the opportunity more attractive, even if another leg lower
remains possible.

This is where patience, conviction, and risk-reward become equally important. Silver moving convincingly back above $60 would provide stronger evidence that the correction is behind us, but markets rarely announce their bottoms in advance. We saw how quickly metals advanced in late 2025, leaving little opportunity for investors waiting for a comfortable entry. Some investors may prefer to build exposure gradually, accepting the possibility of another drawdown. Others may wait for confirmation, accepting that they could enter at higher prices. Neither approach eliminates risk. My broader view remains that gold, silver, and miners such as GDX are approaching an important opportunity, whether the lows have already occurred or another leg lower is still required.

Miners add another dimension because their moves can be considerably more extreme than those of the underlying metals. GDX may recover strongly before the correction is fully resolved, or it may experience another sharp decline before finding a sustainable low. That makes the timing difficult, but it does not change my larger expectation. I still favor a meaningful advance in gold, silver, and miners once the bottoming process is complete. My conviction is in the larger opportunity, not in predicting the exact bottom. And while markets can always move further against an expectation, I remain more constructive on metals today than I was a month ago.

Equities: November Has History on Its Side

Equities are in a different position. October did not deliver the favorable seasonal outcome we discussed last month, but it was hardly a repeat of 2018. The S&P 500 declined approximately 0.9%, compared with nearly 7% in October 2018. The index finished around 7,580, only about 3.4% below its October high. We are not looking at an oversold market, but one that has pulled back while remaining relatively close to its highs. The area around 7,250 continues to be my key reference point. As long as that broader support holds, I remain bullish on equities. A sustained break below it would make me more cautious, while a move below 7,000 would require a much larger reassessment. On the upside, a recovery above 7,900 and potentially beyond 8,000 remains possible. The risk-reward looks somewhat more favorable to me than it did a month ago, particularly when November’s historical record is considered.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished November higher in 15 of 19 midterm-election years. Previous midterm years with a negative October have also tended to recover in November. That is encouraging, although the sample is small and history offers no guarantee that the pattern will repeat. Election uncertainty may begin to fade after the vote, the Federal Reserve held rates at its October meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved below 5%. These developments provide some support for a constructive outlook.

But 2018 remains an important reminder. November that year gained approximately 1.8%, only for December to fall more than 9%. A positive November does not necessarily mean a positive fourth quarter. With oil above $100, elevated equity valuations, and continuing questions around AI capital expenditure, the market can still experience a meaningful repricing. That is why I favor the possibility of a November recovery without assuming that the rest of the year will be straightforward.

What I Am Watching

For metals, I am watching whether gold, silver, and miners such as GDX begin to stabilize after the correction. Another lower low would not surprise me, but I would want to see recoveries hold rather than repeatedly give way to selling. A sustained improvement in silver and miners would strengthen the argument that the next major advance is beginning. Continued weakness without a meaningful response would make me reconsider the timing, even if the larger thesis remains constructive.

For equities, the broader support structure remains central. I want to see whether November brings a sustained recovery rather than another short-lived rally. The election may remove one source of uncertainty, but earnings reactions, Treasury yields, oil prices, and market participation will still matter. If support holds and the recovery broadens, the bullish case strengthens. If support breaks, historical seasonality becomes much less relevant.

Bottom Line

October has changed the relative opportunity. The metals correction we had been anticipating is now a reality, and I am more constructive on gold, silver, and miners than I was a month ago. Another lower low remains possible, but I continue to favor a larger rally once the correction has run its course.

Equities remain in a bull market as I see it, with November offering a historically favorable window for recovery. But the risks have not disappeared, and 2018 reminds us not to confuse a good November with an all-clear signal for the rest of the year.

For now, I see the more compelling opportunity developing in metals, while remaining constructive on equities as long as the broader market structure holds.

Opinion for educational purposes only; not investment advice.